Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langeliers homered to left (397 feet), Cameron scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Castro homered to right (369 feet), Vázquez scored and Martin scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Lewis homered to left center (380 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Langeliers singled to center, Soderstrom scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Soderstrom doubled to center, Andujar scored and Rooker scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Soderstrom singled to right, Toro scored, Bleday to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Larnach grounded out to second, Castro scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML MIN -155 / OAK +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -143
- OAK +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −7 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +80 Elo | MIN 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 17–2126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–42 | 38–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–30 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 35–32 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41 | 35–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–1 OAK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.