Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Butler hit sacrifice fly to center, Gelof scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 8Alvarez reached on infield single to second, Langeliers scored, Alvarez to second, Gelof to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Ward homered to left (407 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 6Adell doubled to left, Moniak scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Rooker homered to left (418 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Moniak homered to right center (375 feet), Calhoun scored, O'Hoppe scored and Neto scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4O'Hoppe singled to center, Ward scored, Calhoun to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Nevin hit by pitch, Schuemann scored, Rooker to second, Andujar to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Bleday singled to center, Alvarez scored, Bleday thrown out at second, Schuemann to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML OAK +100 / LAA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 58.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +61 Elo | LAA 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–29 | Road vs home | 13–2529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–41 | 42–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 2–13 |
| Underdog | 36–35 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 37–43 | 40–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 6–8 LAA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.