Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler NevinBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron BrooksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Moniak doubled to right, Neto scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Moniak reached on infield single to first, Ward scored, Calhoun to second.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3O'Hoppe hit sacrifice fly to right, Rengifo scored, Ward to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Nevin homered to center (404 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Ward homered to right center (376 feet), Rengifo scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 56%
- ML OAK +120 / LAA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 55.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -128
- OAK +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.5 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −9 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +41 Elo | LAA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–28 | Road vs home | 12–2530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–40 | 41–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–13 |
| Underdog | 36–34 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 37–42 | 40–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 6–7 LAA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.