Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting1-4
- Osvaldo BidoPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Herrera scored, Marte to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3McCarthy singled to center, Walker scored, Suárez to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Marte singled to left, Suárez scored, Herrera to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 64%
- ML OAK +165 / ARI -195
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 64.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- ARI -175
- OAK +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +11 | OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +106 Elo | ARI 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–31 | Road vs home | 20–2119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–43 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 37–37 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 39–44 | 42–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–2 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.