Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cameron homered to left (398 feet).9–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 9Langeliers homered to left (386 feet).8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 9Rooker homered to center (437 feet).7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Schuemann singled to left, Gelof scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Gelof tripled to right, Alvarez scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Soderstrom homered to left (386 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Marte singled to right, Carroll scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left (425 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Schuemann hit sacrifice fly to center, Alvarez scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–2
- 3Langeliers singled to right, Andujar scored, Rooker to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML OAK +150 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 64.1%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -159
- OAK +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +100 Elo | ARI 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–31 | Road vs home | 20–2017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–43 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 36–37 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 38–44 | 41–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–2 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.