Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Giants- Brett WiselyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wisely homered to right (401 feet), Fitzgerald scored.3–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Heyward hit sacrifice fly to left, Pages scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Chapman homered to left (414 feet), Ramos scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Matos homered to center (410 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Smith singled to center, Lux scored, Ohtani to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Lux doubled to left, Rojas scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML LAD +105 / SF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- SF: Elo 41.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- LAD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +60 Elo | LAD 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–15 | Road vs home | 23–1812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–41 | 40–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 39–37 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 39–42–1 | 45–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–7 SF in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.