Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Miguel RojasBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Spencer HowardPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 11Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Heyward scored.14–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–7
- 11Heyward tripled to right, T. Hernández scored and Taylor scored.13–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–7
- 11Taylor singled to right, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to second.11–7
- 11Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–7
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball 310–7
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–7
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 210–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 110–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul10–7
- 11Freeman doubled to center, Smith scored.10–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–7
- 11Smith doubled to center, Ohtani scored and E. Hernández scored.9–7
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 10Villar doubled to left, Wisely scored.7–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 10Rojas singled to center, Taylor scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5Wisely singled to center, Chapman scored, Conforto to second.6–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 4Freeman walked, Lux scored, Smith to second, Ohtani to third.6–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 46–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 4Smith reached on infield single to shortstop, Rojas scored, Ohtani to second, Lux to third.5–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML LAD -210 / SF +175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -186
- SF +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 3.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −3 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Erik Miller: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 24–1811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–42 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 39–37 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 40–42–1 | 46–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–8 SF in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.