Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer BivensPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barnes doubled to right, E. Hernández scored and Taylor scored.4–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 8Bailey hit a ground rule double, Ramos scored.2–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 7Taylor doubled to right, Lux scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 5Taylor homered to center (419 feet).1–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–9
- 4Chapman homered to left (359 feet), Bailey scored.0–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 4Bailey doubled to left, Ramos scored and Soler scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Ramos doubled to right, Fitzgerald scored, Soler to third.0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Villar doubled to right, Matos scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 2Slater hit sacrifice fly to right, Fitzgerald scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Soler doubled to center, Villar scored, Fitzgerald to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML LAD -125 / SF +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | 0 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Spencer Bivens (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +58 Elo | LAD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–16 | Road vs home | 24–1912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–42 | 41–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 40–37 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders | 41–42–1 | 47–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 13–8 SF in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.