Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9T. Hernández singled to left, Freeman scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 9Freeman doubled to right, Smith scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 9Pederson homered to right (383 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 8McCarthy reached on bunt single to pitcher, Moreno scored on error, McCarthy to second, McCarthy safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Treinen.4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Ohtani homered to right center (433 feet), Lux scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Marte reached on infield single to shortstop, Perdomo scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Walker homered to center (402 feet), Pederson scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3T. Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Smith scored, Freeman out at second.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1T. Hernández doubled to right, Ohtani scored on error, T. Hernández safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Carroll.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML ARI +165 / LAD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -177
- ARI +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −4 | ARI: Joe Mantiply: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +96 Elo | LAD 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 25–158th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–43 | 42–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 40–38 |
| Underdog | 24–21 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 42–41–1 | 42–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–11 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.
- May 22ARI 6 @ LAD 0Picked LAD 73%Miss
- May 21ARI 7 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 59%Miss
- May 20ARI 4 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 69%Hit
- May 1LAD 8 @ ARI 0Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Apr 30LAD 3 @ ARI 4Picked LAD 56%Miss
- Apr 29LAD 8 @ ARI 4Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Oct 11LAD 2 @ ARI 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 50%Miss
- Oct 9ARI 4 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss