Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Austin BarnesBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moreno doubled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored and Walker scored.9–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 9Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Grichuk scored and Marte scored, Walker to second.7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Marte singled to left, Carroll scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Barnes singled to center, Vargas scored and Taylor scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4E. Hernández grounded out to shortstop, Pages scored, Taylor to second, Vargas to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Walker homered to left (394 feet), Pederson scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Walker homered to center (435 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pederson homered to right center (378 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML ARI -105 / LAD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | 0 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +62 Elo | LAD 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 26–168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–43 | 42–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 40–40 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 44–41–1 | 44–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–12 LAD in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.