Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani homered to center (430 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 8Vargas homered to left center (368 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Yelich homered to center (429 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Hoskins homered to left (384 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Pages grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Freeman scored, T. Hernández out at second.1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Smith homered to right center (369 feet), Ohtani scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Adames singled to left, Contreras scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML MIL -105 / LAD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −13 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +5 Elo | LAD 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 27–177th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–38 | 43–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–25 | 41–41 |
| Underdog | 28–13 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 49–39 | 46–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–6 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.