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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Phillies

58-32

0–6

at

Home

Braves

49-39

PHI 41%ATL 59%

You didn't pick this one.

Truist Park · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.

ATL75%50%75%PHIStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Phillies
  • Whit MerrifieldBatting2-4
  • Tyler PhillipsPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Braves
  • Jarred KelenicBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 6White homered to left (377 feet).0–6
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
  • 2Olson homered to center (430 feet).0–5
  • 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–4
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
  • 2Kelenic homered to right center (427 feet), Arcia scored and White scored.0–4
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
  • 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
  • 2Duvall homered to left (402 feet).0–1
  • 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
  • 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
  • 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Braves 59%

LeanHit
PHI 41%ATL 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
ATL 59%
ML PHI +135 / ATL -155
Pre-line forecast
ATL 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ATL 53%
Ratings vs. market
−5.8 pts
ATL: Elo 53.0%, market 58.8%
Fair odds
ATL -143
PHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 3.9 – 4.6 ATL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHIATLWhy
Team rating15611543Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−11+10PHI: Michael Mercado: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsATL +21 EloATL 53.0%
Market-implied ratingsATL 57.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastATL 56.5%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastATL 58.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatATL
5th of 305.0Runs scored4.315th of 30
1st of 303.7Runs allowed3.72nd of 30
1st of 30+1.3Margin+0.67th of 30
5th of 306–4Last 104–621st of 30
5th of 3024–17Road vs home28–177th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PhilliesBraves
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHIATL
Run line47–4241–46
Last 105–53–7
Favorite37–3433–42
Underdog10–88–4
Overs–unders40–48–130–54–3
Overs–unders, last 106–41–9

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 10–12 ATL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.