San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4
- Charlie MortonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chapman doubled to right, Bailey scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Chapman homered to center (413 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Ramos homered to center (424 feet), Wade Jr. scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Riley hit sacrifice fly to left, Albies scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Albies doubled to right, Kelenic scored on throwing error by right fielder Yastrzemski.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML SF +110 / ATL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 3.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −9 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +60 Elo | ATL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 24th of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 27–156th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–43 | 40–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 48–37–1 | 29–52–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 3–5 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.