San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramos homered to right (365 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Albies singled to center, Kelenic scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 8Ahmed hit sacrifice fly to left, Wisely scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–2
- 6Conforto scored on error, Matos safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Riley.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Wade Jr. homered to right center (442 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Soler homered to left (394 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Murphy homered to center (430 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Riley homered to left (407 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML SF +170 / ATL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.6%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -180
- SF +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +16 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +89 Elo | ATL 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–24 | Road vs home | 26–146th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–42 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 31–39 |
| Underdog | 25–19 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 48–35–1 | 29–50–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–4 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.