Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna homered to right center (409 feet), Albies scored and Riley scored.8–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Rojas scored on fielding error by third baseman Riley.8–3
- 7Rojas scored on fielding error by third baseman Riley.8–3
- 7Rojas reached on infield single to pitcher, Sosa and Merrifield scored on error, Rojas safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Chavez.7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Albies homered to right (385 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Turner homered to left center (459 feet), Stott scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Riley homered to center (414 feet), Albies scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Turner homered to left (425 feet), Stott scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Stott grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rojas scored, Pache out at second.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML PHI +110 / ATL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.6 – 3.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +17 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +12 Elo | ATL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 27–167th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–41 | 40–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 37–34 | 32–41 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 39–47–1 | 29–53–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–11 ATL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.
- Mar 31ATL 4 @ PHI 5Picked ATL 57%Miss
- Mar 30ATL 12 @ PHI 4Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Mar 29ATL 9 @ PHI 3Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Oct 12ATL 1 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Hit
- Oct 11ATL 2 @ PHI 10PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 4 @ ATL 5PlayoffsPicked ATL 55%Hit
- Oct 7PHI 3 @ ATL 0PlayoffsPicked ATL 55%Miss
- Sep 20PHI 6 @ ATL 5Picked ATL 55%Miss