Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael MercadoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suzuki homered to center (384 feet), Busch scored and Bellinger scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Turner singled to right, Stott scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Turner homered to left center (439 feet), Stott scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Bellinger doubled to center, Hoerner scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Turner homered to left center (422 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Stubbs doubled to left, Castellanos scored and Clemens scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML PHI +100 / CHC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 44.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −3 | PHI: Michael Mercado (no track record yet) · CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +40 Elo | PHI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 22–1814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–40 | 42–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–33 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–47–1 | 38–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–1 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.