Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Rafael MarchanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger singled to left, Myers scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 8Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Gordon scored on fielding error by shortstop Sosa, Lopez second.6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Burger homered to left (374 feet).5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Turner scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Bell doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7De La Cruz doubled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Lopez scored and A. Sánchez scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Sosa singled to left, Turner scored, Castellanos to second.0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Marchán homered to left (409 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Harper doubled to right, Turner scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 73%
- ML MIA +250 / PHI -315
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 69.9%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -266
- MIA +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +146 Elo | PHI 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 73.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 3012–25 | Road vs home | 31–112nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–48 | 43–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 36–30 |
| Underdog | 31–30 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38–1 | 34–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–10 PHI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.
- May 12PHI 6 @ MIA 7Picked PHI 65%Miss
- May 11PHI 8 @ MIA 3Picked PHI 53%Hit
- May 10PHI 8 @ MIA 2Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Oct 4MIA 1 @ PHI 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Hit
- Oct 3MIA 1 @ PHI 4PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Hit
- Sep 10MIA 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 55%Miss
- Sep 9MIA 4 @ PHI 8Picked PHI 54%Hit
- Sep 8MIA 3 @ PHI 2Picked PHI 54%Miss