Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Carson KellyBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bohm doubled to left, Harper scored.8–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Harper homered to right (374 feet), Pache scored and Schwarber scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Kelly singled to center, McKinstry scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Bohm homered to left center (385 feet), Harper scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Harper doubled to center, Schwarber scored and Turner scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -185 / DET +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- DET +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 3.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +64 Elo | PHI 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 18–2021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–36 | 35–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–29 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 33–43–1 | 42–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.