Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ibáñez singled to left, Vierling scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 36–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Dahl hit sacrifice fly to left, Stott scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Marsh singled to center, Castellanos scored and Stott scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Marsh homered to left center (359 feet), Stott scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Vierling homered to left center (413 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Castellanos grounded out to shortstop, Schwarber scored, Harper to second, Turner to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML PHI -170 / DET +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.9%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -151
- DET +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | PHI: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +55 Elo | PHI 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 19–2121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–37 | 36–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–30 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–44–1 | 43–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.