Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harper homered to left (351 feet).1–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 5Greene tripled to right, Ibáñez scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Ibáñez singled to center, Rogers scored and Kreidler scored, Ibáñez to second.0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Vierling grounded out to shortstop, Malloy scored, Kreidler to second, Rogers to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -125 / DET +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +15 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +60 Elo | PHI 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 18–2124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–36 | 35–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–29 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–43–1 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–0 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.