Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Nick GordonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Garrett StubbsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Chisholm Jr. singled to center, Fortes scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Fortes doubled to left, Lopez scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Bohm hit sacrifice fly to left, Rojas scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Stubbs homered to right (380 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Gordon homered to right (350 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML MIA +225 / PHI -275
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.7%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -238
- MIA +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +137 Elo | PHI 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 73.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 3013–26 | Road vs home | 32–122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–49 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 37–31 |
| Underdog | 32–31 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 42–39–1 | 35–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–11 PHI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.
- Jun 28MIA 0 @ PHI 2Picked PHI 66%Hit
- Jun 27MIA 7 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 73%Miss
- May 12PHI 6 @ MIA 7Picked PHI 65%Miss
- May 11PHI 8 @ MIA 3Picked PHI 53%Hit
- May 10PHI 8 @ MIA 2Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Oct 4MIA 1 @ PHI 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Hit
- Oct 3MIA 1 @ PHI 4PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Hit
- Sep 10MIA 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 55%Miss