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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Marlins

29-53

0–2

at

Home

Phillies

54-28

MIA 34%PHI 66%

You didn't pick this one.

Citizens Bank Park · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.

PHI75%50%75%MIAStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Marlins
  • Jake BurgerBatting1-3
  • Kyle TylerPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Phillies
  • Bryson StottBatting0-3, 2 RBI
  • Cristopher SanchezPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Rojas scored.0–2
  • 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
  • 8Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
  • 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
  • 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
  • 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
  • 5Stott grounded into fielder's choice to second, Merrifield scored, Stubbs out at second.0–1
  • 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
  • 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
  • 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
  • 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
  • 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
  • 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Phillies 66%

SolidHit
MIA 34%PHI 66%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.

Market
PHI 66%
ML MIA +185 / PHI -225
Pre-line forecast
PHI 70%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI 67%
Ratings vs. market
+0.3 pts
PHI: Elo 66.7%, market 66.4%
Fair odds
PHI -197
MIA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIA 3.5 – 5.0 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMIAPHIWhy
Team rating14511563Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+7−1MIA: Kyle Tyler: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +121 EloPHI 66.7%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 70.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 70.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastPHI 66.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies compared, with each team's league rank
MIAStatPHI
29th of 303.5Runs scored5.02nd of 30
29th of 305.0Runs allowed3.62nd of 30
28th of 30−1.5Margin+1.51st of 30
8th of 306–4Last 106–48th of 30
27th of 3013–25Road vs home31–122nd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MarlinsPhillies
14001450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMIAPHI
Run line33–4843–38
Last 107–35–5
Favorite1–1836–31
Underdog32–307–7
Overs–unders42–38–135–45–1
Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIA 9–10 PHI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.