Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrifield singled to center, Bohm scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Sosa hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Bellinger singled to center, Busch scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Bohm homered to left center (415 feet), Turner scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Crow-Armstrong doubled to center, Happ scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Marchán homered to left center (414 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Happ scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / CHC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +41 Elo | PHI 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–40 | 42–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–33 | 10–27 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–47–1 | 39–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–1 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.