Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting4-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to second, Nido scored, Wisdom out at second, Hoerner to third.2–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 7Morel singled to left, Suzuki scored, Morel to second, Happ thrown out at home.2–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 5Happ homered to right (414 feet), Bellinger scored and Suzuki scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Hoerner singled to center, Bote scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Nido grounded out to shortstop, Swanson scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Happ homered to left center (381 feet), Bellinger scored and Suzuki scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–0
- 4Castellanos homered to left center (407 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Marsh singled to center, Turner scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / CHC +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 22–2015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–40 | 42–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 37–33 | 10–28 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 38–47–1 | 40–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–1 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.