Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Albies homered to left (431 feet), Kelenic scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Turner singled to left, Rojas scored, Stott to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Ozuna homered to center (414 feet), Albies scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Albies singled to right, Kelenic scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML PHI +100 / ATL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 47.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −12 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +19 Elo | PHI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3024–16 | Road vs home | 27–177th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–41 | 40–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 37–34 | 32–42 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 40–47–1 | 30–53–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–11 ATL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.
- Jul 5PHI 8 @ ATL 6Picked ATL 54%Miss
- Mar 31ATL 4 @ PHI 5Picked ATL 57%Miss
- Mar 30ATL 12 @ PHI 4Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Mar 29ATL 9 @ PHI 3Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Oct 12ATL 1 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Hit
- Oct 11ATL 2 @ PHI 10PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 4 @ ATL 5PlayoffsPicked ATL 55%Hit
- Oct 7PHI 3 @ ATL 0PlayoffsPicked ATL 55%Miss