Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Cavan BiggioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marsh homered to right center (407 feet).1–10
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 5Biggio homered to right center (390 feet).1–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 4Stott homered to right center (432 feet).0–9
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–9
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 20–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Turner homered to left (356 feet), Marchán scored, Rojas scored and Schwarber scored.0–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Rojas singled to left, Marsh scored, Marchán to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 2Schwarber singled to center, Marchán scored and Rojas scored, Schwarber out stretching at second.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Marchán singled to right, Marsh scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML LAD +130 / PHI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -138
- LAD +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–17 | Road vs home | 33–132nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–47 | 47–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–42 | 37–34 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 47–43–1 | 40–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.