Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Urshela homered to left center (389 feet), Vilade scored.9–11
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–11
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 29–9
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 19–9
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–9
- 9Keith homered to right center (364 feet), Kelly scored.9–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–9
- 9Kelly singled to left, Vierling scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 9Vierling doubled to left, Malloy scored and Pérez scored.9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 8Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7E. Hernández homered to left (409 feet), Taylor scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 6Ohtani grounded into fielder's choice to second, Biggio scored, Barnes out at second.6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 5Ibáñez homered to left (405 feet).5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Vilade homered to left center (389 feet).5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Lux singled to right, Freeman scored and Pages scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Ohtani homered to right (373 feet).3–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +5 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +18 Elo | LAD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 4th of 3027–20 | Road vs home | 22–2420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–49 | 45–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 42–42 | 12–30 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 33–20 |
| Overs–unders | 48–46–1 | 52–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.