Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-4
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-4
- Keider MonteroPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canha grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rogers scored, Keith safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Rocchio.0–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML CLE -145 / DET +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- DET +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 6th of 3026–21 | Road vs home | 19–2223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–37 | 41–49 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–27 | 11–29 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–40–2 | 49–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–10 DET in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.