Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martini tripled to right, Steer scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 9Steer reached on infield single to shortstop, De La Cruz scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Greene homered to right (401 feet).5–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Candelario reached on infield single to shortstop, India scored on throwing error by shortstop Kreidler, De La Cruz safe at third on error.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Steer homered to left (425 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Keith homered to right (415 feet), Vierling scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Keith homered to right center (413 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Meadows homered to right (410 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML DET +115 / CIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −14 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +28 Elo | CIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3020–26 | Road vs home | 20–2323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–49 | 48–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 18–23 |
| Underdog | 28–20 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 48–39 | 39–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.