Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Carson KellyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell homered to center (429 feet), Moniak scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Neto homered to left (414 feet), Pillar scored and Thaiss scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Schanuel scored on Faedo wild pitch, Rengifo to third on wild pitch by Faedo.7–1
- 6Schanuel scored on Faedo wild pitch, Rengifo to third on wild pitch by Faedo.7–1
- 5Kelly homered to center (407 feet), Ibáñez scored and Rogers scored.7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Malloy hits an inside-the-park home run to center (404 feet), Pérez scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Urshela grounded out to third, Kelly scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Canha hit sacrifice fly to center, Ibáñez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML DET +100 / LAA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 53.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +24 Elo | LAA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 18–2528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–47 | 47–35 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 43–22 |
| Overs–unders | 44–39 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–6 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 9.