Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-3
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis DanielPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rengifo homered to right center (404 feet), Schanuel scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Schanuel singled to left, Neto scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Calhoun homered to right center (414 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Sanó homered to center (406 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML DET -155 / LAA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- DET: Elo 51.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -143
- LAA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −3 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Davis Daniel: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 15–2528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–44 | 44–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 43–37 | 41–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–3 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 6.