Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Pillar singled to left, Ward scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8O'Hoppe homered to left center (403 feet).5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Ward doubled to left, Adell scored and Rengifo scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Rogers homered to left center (443 feet), Malloy scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Rogers hit sacrifice fly to right, McKinstry scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4McKinstry grounded into fielder's choice to second, Keith scored, Urshela out at second.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Calhoun grounded out to first, Rengifo scored, Ward to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 3Schanuel scored on Olson wild pitch, Ward to second on wild pitch by Olson, Rengifo to third on wild pitch by Olson.1–1
- 3Schanuel scored on Olson wild pitch, Ward to second on wild pitch by Olson, Rengifo to third on wild pitch by Olson.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Keith grounded into fielder's choice to second, Pérez scored, Vierling out at second, Greene to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- DET: Elo 49.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +2 Elo | LAA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 17–2528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–46 | 46–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–28 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 42–22 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 41–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–5 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 8.