Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach PlesacPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hoppe homered to left (418 feet), Rengifo scored and Ward scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Canha walked, Pérez scored, Vierling to second, Greene to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 42–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Vierling walked, Kreidler scored, Greene to second, Pérez to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 41–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Rengifo homered to center (398 feet), Schanuel scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML DET -125 / LAA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- DET: Elo 48.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Zach Plesac: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +11 Elo | LAA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 16–2528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–45 | 45–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–27 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 43–38 | 41–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–4 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 7.