Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 3 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Miranda doubled to right, Farmer scored.3–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–11
- 6Jeffers reached on infield single to pitcher, Santana scored and Miranda scored on throwing error by pitcher Wentz, Jeffers to second.3–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 4Jeffers homered to left (368 feet), Miranda scored.3–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 4Miranda doubled to center, Larnach scored and Correa scored.3–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 3Margot reached on infield single to pitcher, Miranda scored, Kepler to second.3–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Kepler singled to left, Correa scored and Larnach scored, Miranda to third.3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Lee hit sacrifice fly to right, Jeffers scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Jeffers doubled to left, Miranda scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Rogers doubled to left, McKinstry scored and Urshela scored, Rogers to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML DET +155 / MIN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- DET +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +72 Elo | MIN 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 24–179th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–48 | 41–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 24–33 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 47–39 | 42–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 13–9 MIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.