Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Larnach homered to center (406 feet), Miranda scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Polanco singled to right, Raley scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Raley reached on infield single to second, Rojas scored, Raleigh to second, Rodríguez to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Moore scored on fielding error by pitcher Ryan, Rojas to second.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Miranda singled to left, Martin scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Martin doubled to left, Kepler scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Larnach singled to center, Castro scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML MIN -110 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +6 Elo | MIN 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 28–133rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–44 | 37–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–32 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–44 | 33–49–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–6 SEA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.