Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz singled to right, DeLuca scored and Siri scored, Caballero to third.3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Rortvedt hit a ground rule double, Walls scored, Siri to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Garver homered to left (400 feet), Canzone scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Palacios scored on Saucedo wild pitch.1–1
- 4Palacios scored on Saucedo wild pitch.1–1
- 4Raleigh homered to right center (423 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML SEA -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- TB: Elo 49.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 19–2324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–44 | 34–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–30 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–45–2 | 41–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–4 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.