Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Palacios grounded into fielder's choice to second, J. Lowe scored, Paredes out at second, Arozarena to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Crawford singled to left, Garver scored and Canzone scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Raleigh homered to right (422 feet), Rojas scored and Rodríguez scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Díaz reached on infield single to pitcher, Caballero scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML SEA -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- TB: Elo 50.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +4 Elo | TB 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 21–2320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–45 | 35–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 33–46–2 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–6 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.