Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rays- Ben RortvedtBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes homered to left (372 feet), Caballero scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 7Rortvedt singled to left, Palacios scored and Siri scored, Walls to second, Walls safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Raley.3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 7Palacios singled to center, J. Lowe scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 33–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 7Garver homered to left (376 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Rortvedt homered to right center (392 feet), Walls scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 6Walls tripled to right, Palacios scored and Siri scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5France homered to left center (427 feet), Polanco scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Siri singled to right, Palacios scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Díaz homered to left (397 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -125 / TB +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −3 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +5 Elo | SEA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 20–2324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–44 | 34–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–30 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–46–2 | 41–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–5 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.