Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Raleigh grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Crawford scored.2–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Raley scored on error, Rodríguez safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Miranda, Rodríguez safe at second on error, Rojas safe at third on error.2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 6Correa homered to left center (385 feet), Castro scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Rojas doubled to right, Haniger scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML MIN +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +12 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +27 Elo | SEA 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–44 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–32 | 21–31 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 39–42 | 33–47–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–5 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.