Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Justyn-Henry MalloyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Twins- Manuel MargotBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Correa homered to left center (421 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Jeffers grounded into fielder's choice to second, Buxton scored, Jeffers out at second.3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Margot homered to left center (406 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 5Kreidler homered to left (395 feet), Baddoo scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Malloy homered to left (402 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Lewis doubled to left, Margot scored and Farmer scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML DET +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +3 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +53 Elo | MIN 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3019–24 | Road vs home | 23–1610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–47 | 40–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 45–39 | 40–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–8 MIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.