Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vierling homered to left (386 feet), Baddoo scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 7Lee singled to center, Buxton scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Greene homered to right (427 feet), Keith scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 3Vázquez homered to left center (425 feet).5–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Pérez homered to center (410 feet).5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Kelly homered to left (387 feet), Vierling scored, Keith scored and Greene scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML DET +135 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -143
- DET +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −6 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +85 Elo | MIN 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 24–169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–48 | 41–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 24–32 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 46–39 | 41–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–9 MIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.