Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soto homered to center (431 feet), Grisham scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Fraley tripled to center, India scored, De La Cruz scored and Steer scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Rice homered to right (407 feet).5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 5Wells homered to center (423 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Steer homered to right (344 feet), India scored and De La Cruz scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3India homered to left center (399 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Martini homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML CIN +155 / NYY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -166
- CIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 5.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +58 Elo | NYY 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 24–169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–39 | 48–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 18–5 |
| Overs–unders | 38–47–1 | 47–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–3 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.