New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones singled to right, Trevino scored.16–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play16–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking15–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking15–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 315–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 215–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 115–5
- 9Trevino doubled to right, Verdugo scored.15–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–5
- 9Verdugo singled to right, Cabrera scored.14–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–5
- 9Torres hit sacrifice fly to left, Judge scored, Cabrera to third.13–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 212–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–5
- 9Cabrera doubled to left, Soto scored, Judge to third.12–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul11–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 9Judge singled to left, Jones scored and Volpe scored, Soto to third.11–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 8LeMahieu doubled to left, Verdugo scored.9–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 38–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 8Verdugo doubled to right, Judge scored, Torres thrown out at home.8–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to right center (405 feet).7–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / TOR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −14 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +32 Elo | NYY 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–17 | Road vs home | 19–1917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–37 | 39–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–32 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39–1 | 38–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 10–10 TOR in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.