Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josh WinckowskiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6O'Neill homered to left (448 feet), Devers scored.9–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 4Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Horwitz scored, Kiermaier scored, Guerrero Jr. safe at third on throwing error by left fielder O'Neill.9–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 3Springer homered to right center (388 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.7–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Turner grounded out to first, Horwitz scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Kiermaier scored and Bichette scored, Horwitz to third.4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Kiermaier singled to right, Jansen and Kiner-Falefa scored on throwing error by right fielder Abreu, Kiermaier to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Yoshida doubled to right, O'Neill scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Devers homered to right center (467 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML TOR +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −12 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +27 Elo | BOS 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 19–2019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–41 | 36–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–25 | 12–27 |
| Underdog | 15–16 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 36–40–1 | 36–41–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–11 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.