Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to right, Rafaela scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 8González singled to left, Devers scored and O'Neill scored, Refsnyder to third.6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Hamilton homered to right (406 feet), Duran scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (471 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Horwitz scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Horwitz singled to right, Kiermaier scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7Kiermaier singled to center, Barger scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Devers homered to right (443 feet), Duran scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Turner singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML TOR +135 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -143
- TOR +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +12 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +45 Elo | BOS 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 18–2021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–41 | 36–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–25 | 12–26 |
| Underdog | 14–16 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–40–1 | 35–41–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–10 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.