New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-3, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (371 feet).2–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 5Grisham homered to left (339 feet), Cabrera scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 2Springer homered to left center (434 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Turner scored.0–8
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Springer homered to left (391 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Turner scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Turner reached on infield single to first, Kiner-Falefa scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to right, Bichette scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +8 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +8 Elo | NYY 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–16 | Road vs home | 18–1919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–36 | 38–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–31 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 42–39–1 | 37–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 10–9 TOR in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.