New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Judge homered to center (390 feet), Grisham scored, Wells scored and Soto scored.7–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 8Wells singled to center, Rice scored, Grisham to second.3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 7Judge doubled to left, Volpe scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 6Alonso hit sacrifice fly to center, Nimmo scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 6Martinez doubled to center, Bader scored, Nimmo to third.1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6McNeil scored on error, Nimmo safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Torres, Bader safe at third on error.1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Soto homered to right center (423 feet).1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Nimmo homered to right (382 feet), McNeil scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Vientos homered to right center (385 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Bader homered to left (419 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Vientos homered to left center (382 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Taylor singled to left, Lindor scored, Alvarez to second, Alonso thrown out at home.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -155 / NYM +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 3.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +31 Elo | NYY 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–14 | Road vs home | 18–2225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–34 | 32–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–29 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39–1 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–2 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.