Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to left center (398 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 8Barger hit a ground rule double, Guerrero Jr. scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Guerrero Jr. doubled to right, Clement scored and Serven scored.3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7Springer homered to left (416 feet).1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML TOR +135 / BOS -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- TOR +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −11 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +22 Elo | BOS 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 19–2120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–41 | 36–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–25 | 12–28 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40–1 | 37–41–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–11 BOS in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.