New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vientos singled to right, Alonso scored, Torrens to second.2–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 7Bader homered to left center (394 feet).2–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 6Taylor homered to left center (396 feet), Alonso scored and Alvarez scored.2–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 6Judge homered to left (400 feet), Soto scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 5Bader doubled to right, Taylor scored, Vientos to third.0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5McNeil hit sacrifice fly to right, Alvarez scored, Taylor to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Vientos walked, Alonso scored, Taylor to second, Alvarez to third.0–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 40–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 5Alvarez doubled to right, Nimmo scored, Alonso to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Alvarez homered to right center (381 feet), Nimmo scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Martinez singled to right, Lindor scored, Nimmo to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / NYM +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- NYM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −2 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +20 Elo | NYY 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–15 | Road vs home | 19–2224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–35 | 33–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–30 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders | 41–39–1 | 39–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–3 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.