New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Justin TurnerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rice doubled to center, Verdugo scored.8–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Grisham doubled to center, LeMahieu scored and Rice scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5LeMahieu doubled to center, Torres scored, Rice to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Turner singled to center, Horwitz scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Soto walked, Wells scored, Grisham to second, LeMahieu to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 44–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2LeMahieu singled to left, Rice scored, Wells to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Judge homered to center (423 feet), Soto scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -125 / TOR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +15 Elo | NYY 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3029–18 | Road vs home | 20–2017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–38 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 45–39–1 | 40–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–11 TOR in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.